Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 0.019396 0.021997 0.024823 0.028125 0.031877 0.036010 0.040913
2025-05-18 0.015132 0.018658 0.022828 0.028126 0.034689 0.042565 0.052755
2025-05-25 0.012595 0.016435 0.021240 0.027706 0.036202 0.047010 0.061853
2025-06-01 0.011130 0.015212 0.020564 0.028115 0.038526 0.052428 0.072486
2025-06-08 0.009806 0.013949 0.019603 0.027911 0.039856 0.056488 0.081539
2025-06-15 0.009058 0.013355 0.019437 0.028707 0.042550 0.062567 0.093916
2025-06-22 0.007949 0.012102 0.018174 0.027741 0.042520 0.064633 0.100505
2025-06-29 0.007172 0.011250 0.017394 0.027374 0.043289 0.067869 0.109074
2025-07-06 0.006376 0.010280 0.016329 0.026436 0.043035 0.069440 0.115075
2025-07-13 0.006096 0.010094 0.016456 0.027385 0.045852 0.076081 0.129903
2025-07-20 0.005790 0.009831 0.016427 0.028057 0.048245 0.082202 0.144392
2025-07-27 0.005548 0.009649 0.016509 0.028907 0.050993 0.089124 0.160877
2025-08-03 0.005123 0.009124 0.015977 0.028671 0.051868 0.092962 0.172394
2025-08-10 0.004781 0.008713 0.015607 0.028690 0.053201 0.097735 0.186115
2025-08-17 0.004407 0.008209 0.015026 0.028261 0.053654 0.100913 0.197090
2025-08-24 0.004190 0.007975 0.014909 0.028678 0.055721 0.107257 0.214770
2025-08-31 0.003910 0.007595 0.014488 0.028469 0.056551 0.111287 0.228211
2025-09-07 0.003781 0.007495 0.014587 0.029282 0.059456 0.119609 0.251177
2025-09-14 0.003452 0.006972 0.013822 0.028296 0.058633 0.120381 0.258421
2025-09-21 0.003222 0.006627 0.013378 0.027922 0.059027 0.123653 0.271278
2025-09-28 0.002950 0.006175 0.012684 0.026965 0.058103 0.124078 0.277925
2025-10-05 0.002891 0.006163 0.012889 0.027933 0.061398 0.133764 0.306183
2025-10-12 0.002808 0.006091 0.012963 0.028619 0.064128 0.142447 0.332989